Sports gambling is often very profitable if an individual know the secrets and techniques typically the “smart money” gamblers make use of to consistently make dollars. One of the biggest secrets that clever money gamblers use will be knowing when NOT to be able to bet.
Here’s a great instance. We analyzed the Western side Va vs. Louisville video game, and concluded of which West Va had often the edge in the sport. Nevertheless , I actually also understood that there have been a good deal of random and unforeseen factors, and recommended to my clients that they accomplish not guess on this particular game. Here is my analysis I released just before the game:
West Florida or Louisville
This online game possesses all the signals of being one of the most effective games associated with the year, together with both teams coming into the adventure 7-0. It’s #3 rated West Virginia as opposed to. #5 ranked Louisville, equally with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s activity was a classic, having Western side Virginia coming again from staying down massive in the 4th quarter to winning around overtime.
So what’s the game seem like this year?
In the event this activity were appearing played from the natural field, West Las vegas would certainly probably be a 4-6 stage favorite. Since often the game is in Louisville, WVU is a 1-point under dog. Let’s see if this will make sense…
West Virginia is definitely on an unprecedented move. They haven’t lost given that April. 1, 2005, heading 14-0 since they lost to Florida Tech. Inside the last two months they’re 13-5 ATS at the same time. They’re also 7-2 OBTAIN THE in their last on the lookout for game titles overall, and 8-2 OBTAIN THE in their very last 10 ROAD games.
These are some very outstanding stats that tilt this scales in favor regarding WVU regarding tonight’s game. Plus, this extra benefit is that WVU is usually GETTING +1 point. This could not seem like substantially, but in a shut match-up like this, that excess point can make the big difference between a push and even a loss.
But what regarding Louisville?
Louisville’s numbers are generally almost as good like WVU’s -except when it comes to Louisville in the point spread. In their previous 10 games, Louisville is simply 4-6 ATS. The fact that said, Louisville is all the same 7-3 ATS in their previous 10 home game titles.
In addition to if you’re leaning in the direction of WVU, here’s a scary stat… Louisville hasn’t dropped in your house since January 16, 2003! During this recent run Louisville is hitting 49. some points each game in your own home, while averaging only quitting 15. 7 points every game with home. In case an individual don’t do the math, that means considering their own last home loss they are yet to averaged beating his or her opposing team by way of about thirty four points per game.
In addition outstanding, the average line during these games has only also been 21 points. That means that Louisville has beaten this pass on, on average, by simply 13 points per sport at home considering that the year 2003.
Wow… how can an individual go against that?
Here’s exactly how…
Many of those stats ended up accumulated during the july 2004 season. This year, 2006, Louisville has been nearer to excellent than great. They already have got recent games where they also have only scored twenty eight, 23, 24 points. And sbo weren’t against Oh E. or Michigan. That they had been against Cincinnati, Syracuse, and even Kansas St.
The bottom line is that this is still some sort of close sport to phone. Nonetheless the things i look for is West Virginia’s defense to carry the day. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, together with Kansas St. can most hold Louisville under 25 points, then there’s virtually no reason to think WVU can’t have one to this low to mid 20’s. My honest professional recommendation will be to lay off that game and certainly not wager at all. There usually are better game titles this weekend break with more simple advantages.
The final score in this game was Louisville forty four, West Florida 34. Lousiville won because West California had 6 fumbles and allowed Lousiville to come back some sort of punt for some sort of TD. The bottom line was that West Virginia’s advantage was not so big they will may possibly still win after building so many mistakes. By not betting on that game, people critical about sports betting saved money these people can offer better make use of on future games.